Pakistan cannot afford a US-Iran conflict but must prepare

https://arab.news/4x4td

Pakistan remains etched in a volatile neighborhood and maintaining a working relationship with its eastern and western neighbors has remained a challenging affair for its decision makers. Notwithstanding the endemic political tensions with its eastern neighbor India, Pakistan’s relationship with its two western neighbors is not ideal equally. Cross border terror attacks from Afghanistan have been on the rise resulting in a deterioration of bilateral ties and the indefinite closure of the border. The relationship with the other western neighbor Iran, has also remained uneasy owing to border security issues. These bilateral tensions reached a high mark when at the start of 2024, both sides launched strikes against militant safe havens across each other’s borders. The relationship has since then stabilized but the recent spike in Iran-US tensions in the wake of nationwide protests in Iran has again created a politically challenging environment for Pakistan.

Before 1979, there existed an atmosphere of trust and inter-personal proximity between the decision-making circles and state establishments of both countries. This changed after 1979 as Pakistan and Iran were ruled by fundamentally different regimes and their strategic interests in the regional clashed with each other. The politicization of sectarian identities and resultant violence within Pakistan did not help the state of bilateral affairs.

Another key issue plaguing the relationship has been the recurrent instability and insurgency across the Baloch frontier. Both sides have accused each other of providing safe havens to Baloch insurgent groups that have carried out deadly attacks against security forces on both sides of the border. The civil war in Syria and the Iranian recruitment of Pakistanis under the banner of militias to fight in Syria, added another problematic vector in the bilateral relationship.

Despite these challenges and distrust on both sides, political leaderships have always kept open channels of communication and over the last decade, Pakistan’s security establishment has also increasingly engaged with Iranian security circles to improve bilateral coordination and reduce bilateral distrust.

For Pakistan’s decision makers, it is imperative that US-Iran negotiations successfully conclude. Umar Karim

For Pakistan’s decision makers, it is imperative that US-Iran negotiations successfully conclude.

Against this backdrop, the January protests across Iran, the violent clampdown by Iranian authorities against protesters and the resultant tensions with the United States leading to a massive American force buildup, has again created new uncertainties for Pakistan.

An American attack against Iran would shake the region, leading to the decapacitation of Iranian state operatives, creating a scenario where the state apparatus loses its grip at least on its peripheral regions (which also happen to be inhabited by ethnic minorities like the province of Sistan-Balochistan). Ethnic separatists would thrive in the law-and-order vacuum and Pakistan will no longer have a state partner to coordinate border security issues. This will virtually open up the border on the Iranian side, leading to a greater degree of insurgent attacks in Pakistan. Baloch insurgents in the absence of any authority across the border will become further emboldened. For Pakistan, the fallout of a possible American attack on Iran is vast.

It will make it extremely difficult for the Pakistani government to bring in any Foreign Direct Investment into this sector within Balochistan. There will also be immense civil unrest and domestic pressure to support Iran against the US on one end. At the same time, Pakistan will be trying to prevent any new recruitment of Pakistanis to fight in Iran.

For Pakistan’s decision makers, it is imperative that US-Iran negotiations successfully conclude. However, as the clouds of war still hover over the region and as more US military assets arrive in the region, Pakistan must at the same time prepare itself. It must wargame and strategize for a future US-Iran conflict and the fallout of these very real repercussions for border security, domestic politics and sectarian turmoil.

- Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. X: @UmarKarim89

© Arab News Pakistan