As the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on for another devastating day, pundits and politicians are eager to spin the uncertainty into clear narratives that justify their long-held views. Israel talks about “changing the Middle East”. The US speaks of “defending the American people”. Both repeat “regime change” like a mantra, even though the prospects of that in the Iranian context remain unclear.

So far, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has failed to produce the mass uprising within Iran that Israel and the US have called for. Meanwhile, pundits continue to repeat that regime change cannot happen from the air.

Still, war exists to be won or lost. So who is winning?

The immediate impulse is to assume a victory for Israel and the US. After all, both countries pulled off a major surprise and appear to be decimating the Islamic Republic leadership from the air and sea. What greater achievement could there be but “decapitation”?

Considering the weak responses of the European Union and Asia’s absence from unfolding events, the impression that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have won grows stronger. No one seems capable of even suggesting any kind of feasible alternative to the Israeli-American full-court press.

I would like to suggest a different take on the current state of affairs. Succinctly, I propose that Netanyahu and Trump may have won the first round of hostilities, the most tactical and immediate........

© Al Jazeera