It is clear that the latest United States-Israel-Iran war stands to fundamentally reshape the politics of the Middle East. Less obvious is its immediate impact on US politics, especially the 2026 midterm elections and the durability of US support for Israel.

While the core of US President Donald Trump’s base has come out in support of the joint US-Israel strikes, some influential figures on the American right have denounced them. These condemnations have heightened tensions already at play within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) base, and dovetail with conservative concerns about Israel’s influence over US foreign policy.

With the midterm elections approaching, this is not a good time for intraparty division. Conservative quarrelling over war with Iran and broader support for Israel could cost Republicans in November.

The stakes for Republicans are high: All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 of 100 Senate seats will be on the ballot, and Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Control of Congress will shape whether Trump’s agenda advances, how forcefully a Democratic majority might engage the White House through oversight, and how secure Israel’s position in Washington remains.

‘Israel’s war’ and MAGA dissent

In the days leading up to Saturday’s initial strikes, influential right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson, a leading critic of Israel’s influence over the US government, repeatedly warned against military escalation.

On his Thursday programme, broadcast to tens of millions of social media followers, Carlson argued that Israel was pushing the US into conflict to secure absolute hegemony in the Middle East.

On Monday evening, Carlson commented on the war’s opening phase, doubling down on his pre-war analysis, calling the war “Israel’s war” and arguing that it only “happened because Israel wanted it to happen”.

Other prominent conservatives have criticised the war. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X that the strikes were “murdering [Iranian] children” and........

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