The US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayotallah Ali Khamenei have caused a measure of discomfort in Moscow. Some hawkish Russian commentators claim that Russia could be attacked in the same manner despite its vast nuclear arsenal. They see reckless statements by major Western officials about the possibility of war with Russia in the near future as proof of the intent.

Although the attack on Iran is a cause of concern in Moscow, it is also seen as a vindication of its own geopolitical strategy, including the aggression against Ukraine. It is a confirmation of the Kremlin’s long-held view of the US-led West as a rogue and irrational actor.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US war on Iran likely echoes the events of 2011 in Libya, which heavily influenced his own threat perceptions. That year, a NATO-led military intervention resulted in the ouster of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

The NATO attack on Libya, which Putin’s protege and then-President Dmitry Medvedev had facilitated by approving Russia’s abstention during a United Nations Security Council vote, was one of the factors that pushed him to decide to return to the presidency.

In October 2011, a month after Putin accepted the nomination for another presidential run, Gaddafi was brutally murdered by rebels, and the video of his demise went viral on the Internet. The end of his regime, celebrated by Western leaders at the time, brought neither democracy nor prosperity to Libya. Instead it plunged the country into a civil war and fragmentation.

For Putin, it was a clear demonstration of what might await him........

© Al Jazeera