Trump must not lose the battle for the Strait of Hormuz
I still believe that it was unwise to launch this war. President Donald Trump should have instead responded to Iran’s massacre of its own people and — associated breach of his red-line — by using potent but limited force against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
But now the war is upon us. And while Trump should pursue broader off-ramps to end this war sooner rather than later, he must not allow Iran to secure a strategic victory in the Strait of Hormuz. If necessary, he must master the escalation curve on this specific concern.
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Granting Iran a Hormuz Strait victory would strongly suggest to that regime, and to China, Russia and other U.S. adversaries that Trump’s resolve is malleable to their pushing limited but painful pressure points. In turn, China might double down on its preparatory efforts to attack U.S. critical infrastructure and utilities to dissuade U.S. military intervention in the early stage of any future war over Taiwan. Russia might take greater risks to test NATO, believing Trump fearful of risking the U.S.’s short-term prosperity to defend allies in eastern Europe. It might encourage Trump’s erstwhile negotiating partner, Kim Jong Un, to again start throwing intercontinental ballistic missiles over the Pacific.
In the immediate, U.S.........
