If you want to be a pessimist, the worst economic news for President Donald Trump during his first full year back in the Oval Office is that the Federal Reserve cannot possibly justify slashing the interest rate charged by banks to borrow from each other overnight.

If you want to be an optimist, you just have to look at why the federal funds rate is so static. After all, the Fed left it unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting. That was in line with expectations, after three consecutive rate cuts last year that pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022.

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Despite perpetual panic over a supposedly deteriorating labor market, a second shoe has yet to drop, with the unemployment rate humming near historic lows at 4.3%. And although net job growth across 2025 was mild — the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found the economy added a net 359,000 jobs — that stems from the White House’s intentional crusade to slash 324,000 jobs from the federal government. The Department of Government Efficiency’s moves in early and mid-2025,........

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