The reported shift in diplomatic activity toward Islamabad marks a critical inflection point in the U.S.-Iranian conflict. In a post-strike Tehran, the identity of the Iranian delegation will do more than shape negotiations — it will offer one of the clearest available signals of who holds power inside the regime. 

Using who shows up to negotiations as an intelligence signal of regime control provides a rare window into Iran’s internal balance, even if it is not definitive. If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dominates the delegation, the chances for a near-term negotiated settlement increase — though likely at the cost of a more complex and fragile arrangement down the line. If the ideological inner circle surrounding Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — the “Cohort” — takes the lead, it signals that hard-line resistance remains firmly in control, narrowing the path to any meaningful deal.

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If the delegation is led by Saeed Jalili, the newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, it would strongly suggest that the Cohort retains control. Jalili, a quintessential loyalist elevated in the aftermath of Ali Larijani’s assassination, represents an........

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