One of the most-told political stories of this term is how much Anthony Albanese’s campaign for the Indigenous Voice damaged him. If in a few weeks Albanese loses the election, this story – about a prime minister whose priorities were all wrong – will be set in stone. And Dutton’s victory will, at the same time, cement the other story that took hold then: that Dutton is a brutally effective campaigner.

But this raises an intriguing question. If Albanese wins, will our story about that campaign and its lingering political impact shift? Here’s another version of the story. Referendums without bipartisan support do not succeed. Once Dutton had decided to oppose, the result was inevitable: nothing he did after that had an effect.

Artwork: Joe BenkeCredit:

Through 2023 and 2024, inflation dragged down the popularity of incumbents everywhere. If anything, against a hapless opponent amid an inflation crisis, the Coalition should have pulled dramatically ahead: it never did.

If Dutton loses this election, the moment he decided the referendum meant more than it did may be remembered as decisive. Recall two of his biggest splashes in that campaign: the attack on the Australian Electoral Commission and a “rigged” process, and his quickly rescinded proposal to hold a referendum on Indigenous recognition.

The similarities with his current campaign are striking: policies leaning Trumpward (talk of school students being “indoctrinated”, potential cuts to the education department and the ABC, and others lacking detail, soon withdrawn (using

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