If Peter Dutton is to have any hope of realising his ambition to resurrect the Liberal Party at the next federal election, he needs to win seats like Dunkley. The coastal electorate in Melbourne’s south-east is, after all, the sort of territory marked out as future Liberal heartland to replace the inner-urban seats lost to independents and the Greens.

Ignore the spin and the dampening of expectations in the lead-up to the March 2 byelection. Dutton not only should win it, he has to win it.

Credit: Illustration: Dionne Gain

The Liberals have a lot going for them in this seat with its mix of down-at-heel and well-heeled. Interest rates, inflation and cost of living pressures remain high. Tax cuts have been promised, not yet delivered, so the prospect of votes in advance of receipt are low. On top of that, the conservative group Advance, which honed its techniques in the referendum, last week zeroed in on Anthony Albanese to become the “loudest voice” on social media in Dunkley, urging voters to tell him he had to do better.

The Greens are also running a candidate, determined to keep the pressure on Albanese on housing by running a personalised attack to force him to change negative gearing.

Adding some spice to the mix is Barnaby Joyce, looking quite comfortable lying on a busy Canberra footpath cursing into his phone, reminding exasperated colleagues how much time they have spent over so many years at such a great electoral cost, making excuses for his poor behaviour. Senior........

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