If the current ceasefire in Gaza holds, it will mark the much-needed end to an indefensibly cruel war. But the longer-term picture, and whether yet another deadly conflagration can be prevented, is another matter. One factor — not the only one, but a big one — is whether the Israelis can be convinced that they should give peace negotiations a serious chance.

Ilan Goldenberg has been thinking about how to do that for quite some time.

While serving as a high-ranking Biden administration official on the Israel-Palestine desk, Goldenberg pushed unsuccessfully for the White House to pressure the Israelis more aggressively in pursuit of a ceasefire. Now that the Trump administration has done so and secured an agreement for their efforts, he sees possibilities for change in Israel’s deeper approach to the conflict — either for the better or for the worse.

The optimistic scenario looks a lot like the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which Israel fended off a surprise invasion from Egyptian and Syrian forces. The initial success of the Arab attack shocked an Israeli public that had grown overconfident in its own strength, laying the groundwork for Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s decision to sign a peace treaty with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1978.

The pessimistic scenario resembles the aftermath of the Second Intifada in the 2000s, the bloodiest round of Israeli-Palestinian fighting prior to the current war. That conflict, in which large numbers of Israeli civilians were killed by terrorist attacks inside its borders, led many Israelis to conclude that negotiated peace was impossible — producing a political shift to the right that has led to ever-deepening occupation in the West Bank and Israel’s shockingly brutal conduct during the Gaza war.

So, which one is more likely: an Israeli recognition of the need for peace, or a doubling down on the logic of perpetual war? Goldenberg isn’t sure. But he’s confident that there’s a struggle shaping up right now that could tilt the outcome in one direction or the other.

“The most important thing is going to be elections in Israel next year,” he tells me. “That’s the linchpin of all of this.”

No peace with Netanyahu

The Trump ceasefire deal is, in part, an agreement to decide not to decide.

While it purports to be a comprehensive agreement, the parties only fully agreed to its short-term provisions — like this past weekend’s hostage-prisoner exchange, as well as an Israeli withdrawal from much of Gaza. There are no agreed-upon specific steps for implementing its longer-term provisions, such as........

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