The peak of the hurricane season is upon us and forecasters are still anticipating higher than normal levels of activity, despite a relatively calm season so far.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Erin is churning in the Atlantic Ocean and moving toward the Caribbean, likely to become the season’s first hurricane, a storm with sustained winds above 74 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center says it’s too early to predict the storm’s impacts but advises people on the East Coast of the US “to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.”

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 until November 30 and typically has 14 storms strong enough to be named, meaning with wind speeds above 39 mph. This year is anticipated to be busier than usual, with forecasters expecting up to 18 named storms, and up to five that will turn into major hurricanes. That’s due in part to the El Niño cycle, which is currently in its neutral phase, creating atmospheric conditions more favorable to tropical storms. The surface of the Atlantic Ocean remains at above-average temperatures, and since hurricanes are powered by hot water, Erin may become the first major hurricane of the year.

“As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued,” acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said in a news release.

But a tropical storm doesn’t have to reach hurricane strength to cause death and destruction. The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry last month stalled over Texas, where they converged with another weather system and caused a massive downpour that led to

© Vox