Candidate Donald Trump promised an economic renaissance. President Donald Trump is delivering economic turmoil.

The US stock market, once the only measure of economic performance that the president cared about, has seen a significant selloff amid fears of an impending recession — and the US is underperforming relative to its global peers.

Other indicators look brighter, but there are troubling signs on the horizon. February’s jobs report said the labor market was holding steady, but the report did not yet capture the full extent of Trump’s mass layoffs of federal workers. Inflation came down slightly in February, but price stability is in trouble as Trump’s tariffs touch off a global trade war.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the administration is focused on the “real economy,” tracking Treasury yields as an indicator of its health. Declining Treasury yields could help bring down borrowing costs across the economy, spurring investment and leading to economic growth. But amid the chaos created by Trump’s policies, it’s not clear that strategy will work.

The future looks rocky enough that Trump last weekend refused to rule out a recession.

Trump’s defenders say the pain is temporary and that good times are ahead: “I’d kind of suggest people keep their powder dry and pay attention to a well-thought-out economic plan that will indeed make America great again,” Larry Kudlow, a Fox Business pundit and former........

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