A series of high-profile incidents of political violence — targeting members of both major political parties — have grabbed the nation’s attention.

Earlier this month, a gunman shot two Minnesota Democratic lawmakers in their homes. State Rep. Melissa Hartman and her husband were killed, and state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife were injured.

In April, a man who allegedly “harbored hatred” for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro set fire to the Democrat’s home while he and his family were sleeping inside.

President Donald Trump faced two assassination attempts during his 2024 campaign. A former Coast Guard officer who identified with Antifa, a far-left antifascist militant movement, was also arrested earlier this month for issuing violent death threats against Trump.

In October 2022, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was attacked by an assailant who broke into their home looking for her.

And on January 6, 2021, rioters descended on the US Capitol to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory, threatening to hang then-Vice President Mike Pence for allowing it to move forward.

It might feel like, based on the severity and frequency of these headline incidents, American political violence is surging. Members of Congress appear to think so: Lawmakers from both parties are now asking for more funding to enhance security and investigate and prosecute more threats made against them.

But while there are signs in the data that indicate political violence is indeed on the rise, depending on how you define it, it’s challenging to determine exactly by how much.

“It’s more anecdotal than anything else,” said Katherine Keneally, director of threat analysis and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. “There’s some data to back up that the........

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