Recessions are always officially declared after they have already started.

In the US, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of what constitutes a recession, taking into consideration different economic indicators, including growth. The organization defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy,” usually lasting more than a few months, but not always.

The Great Recession technically began in December 2007 following the global financial crash, but the NBER didn’t recognize it as such until the following December. The Covid-19 recession lasted less than three months, starting in February 2020, but it wasn’t declared until June.

So is it possible that the US is already experiencing a recession brought on by President Donald Trump’s tariffs — but we just don’t know it yet?

Economists say it’s possible, and they’re looking for signs that go beyond sustained negative economic growth, which can only be seen in hindsight.

That’s important for Americans making everyday financial decisions, as well as businesses planning for a potentially rocky quarter ahead with the implementation of Trump’s tariffs.

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