How the Musk-Trump blowup ends, nobody knows.

Most commentary gives President Donald Trump the advantage. But Elon Musk’s willingness to spend his fortune on elections gives him one distinct advantage — the ability to drive a brittle party system into chaos and loosen Trump’s hold on it.

Thus far, Musk has raised two electoral threats. First, his opposition to Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill has raised the specter of his funding primary challenges against Republicans who vote to support the legislation. Second, he has raised the possibility of starting a new political party. There are limits to how much Musk can actually reshape the political landscape — but the underlying conditions of our politics make it uniquely vulnerable to disruption.

The threat of Musk-funded primaries might ring a little hollow. Trump will almost certainly still be beloved by core Republican voters in 2026. Musk can fund primary challengers, but in a low-information, low-turnout environment of mostly Trump-loving loyal partisans, he is unlikely to succeed.

However, in the November 2026 midterm elections, Musk could have much more impact for much less money. All he needs to do is fund a few spoiler third-party candidates in a few key swing states and districts. In so doing, he would exploit the vulnerability that has been hiding in plain sight for a while — the wafer-thin closeness of national elections.

In a straight-up battle for the soul of the Republican Party, Trump wins hands down. Not even close. Trump has been the party’s leader and cult of personality for a decade.

But in a battle for the balance of power, Musk might hold the cards.

Currently, the US political system is “calcified.” That’s how the political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck described it in their 2022 book,

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