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What the next pope could mean about the future of the Catholic Church

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21.04.2025
Pope Francis waves to thousands of followers as he arrives at the Manila Cathedral in 2015 in Manila, Philippines. | Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

If you wrote a novel in which the first Latin American pope died on Easter Monday — which happened to fall on April 21, the traditional anniversary of the founding of the city of Rome — it would be rejected by any decent editor. But that is precisely what has happened. Pope Francis, a symbol for many of the possibility of a more compassionate Christianity, has died. The apostolic throne of St. Peter is now empty.

The period between the death of one pope and the election of his successor by the College of Cardinals is known rather ominously as a “sede vacante” (the vacant seat). It ordinarily lasts about 15 to 20 days, nine of which are the official mourning period known as the novendiale. Shortly after the nine-day period, after funeral rites for the recently deceased pope have been concluded, the Catholic Church’s leading cardinals will meet privately to elect a new pope in a conclave.

The word conclave, from the Latin “with key,” comes from the 13th century when, following the death of Pope Clement IV, the cardinals were unable to agree on a new pope for almost three years. As frustration grew, it was decided to lock the cardinals away, providing them with only bread and water until they came to a decision. This practice of secluding the cardinals while they name their choice is now a matter of canon law. Even though the conclave has not begun, in our anxious times many are already starting to consider who might be the next Bishop of Rome.

The election of a new pope has always been as much political balancing act as spiritual exercise. Most of the current conversation has focused on the “progressive” versus “traditionalist” strands of the global culture wars. Broadly speaking, this refers to the growing divide in the Catholic Church between the so-called “progressives” who favor reforms to the church’s attitude toward cultural and social issues (particularly those related to gender and sexuality) and the “traditionalists” who oppose such reforms, often advocating for creating even stricter norms in light of liberalization in the wider society. (Francis was considered progressive, whereas his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI was a traditionalist.) This divide is not unique to the Catholic Church and can now be seen in nearly every religious tradition. But while this conflict will likely dominate the conclave and coverage of........

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