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Trump says Cuba is “next.” What does that mean?

The island may be next in the administration’s crosshairs after Venezuela and Iran. But it’s not clear what the plan is.

“We may stop by Cuba after we’re finished with this,” President Donald Trump mused earlier this month during remarks about the war in Iran, one of a number of times in recent weeks that he has implied Cuba will be “next” on the administration’s regime change agenda.

The administration amped up its “maximum pressure” campaign against Cuba in January, shortly after the capture of Venezuelan president and key Cuban ally Nicolas Maduro, severely restricting oil imports to the island as it was already suffering from repeated nationwide blackouts. Now the Pentagon is preparing a range of military options for taking action on the island. Senate Democrats are alarmed enough by the saber-rattling that they’ve sponsored legislation to block military action against the nation.

Amid the threats, talks are ongoing as well. A US State Department delegation visited Havana earlier this month, the first time a US government aircraft had touched down in Cuba since the short-lived rapprochement under the Obama administration. The American delegation brought a list of demands including economic reforms, the release of political prisoners, compensation for US residents and corporations whose properties were seized in the Cuban revolution, and allowing Starlink internet connectivity on the island.

Ever since Fidel Castro took power in 1959, every US president has struggled with the question of what to do about the regime Castro founded 90 miles off the US coast. Fresh off decapitation operations in Venezuela and Iran, Trump seems confident that he’s the one who can solve the problem.

“All my life I’ve been hearing about the United States and Cuba: When will the United States do it? I do believe I’ll be the honor, having the honor of taking Cuba.” he has said.

But what does “taking” Cuba actually mean? The dream for opponents of the regime in both Cuba and the United States is the removal of the communist regime followed by the lifting of the US embargo. But it’s probably more likely to be something short of that.

This administration seems to have a capacious understanding of the concept of “regime change” that does not appear to imply regime removal. The US has left Maduro’s former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez in power in Venezuela under implied threat of further military action if she steps out of line. After the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other top officials in Iran, Trump has said the country’s new government is “less radical and much more reasonable,” though unlike Rodriguez, they seem far less........

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