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How the Iran war could drive conflicts in countries thousands of miles away

Fuel and food prices are rising. Mass protests could follow.

Comoros, an island nation of less than a million people, more than 3,000 miles away from Iran, might not seem to have much at stake, politically, from the current conflict in the Middle East. Donald Trump has never publicly mentioned it. It is neither an ally nor a target of the Iranian regime. But as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no country is totally insulated from the fallout of the war launched by the United States and Israel, and that includes Comoros.

Last month, the country’s government attempted to raise gasoline prices by 35 percent, blaming the price shock caused by the Iran war. The public response included protests, roadblocks in the capital, and clashes with security forces during which one person was killed. The government suspended the fuel price increase in response.

Protests have already broken out in several African countries in recent weeks, sparked by increases in the price of fuel caused by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts and humanitarian organizations are expecting that the price of food will also rise substantially in the coming months. In the past, global food and fuel price spikes have been associated with moments of mass protest, including the 2011 Arab Spring.

If the Iran crisis continues, the result could be instability and political upheaval in countries that have little or nothing to do with the war.

It’s not the only place where Hormuz shockwaves have caused social unrest. Four people were killed in Kenya in May in protests sparked by rising fuel prices. Bus drivers in Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, have gone on strike over a 46 percent increase in diesel prices, grinding the city to a halt.

Notably, none of these were primarily protests against the war itself, or against Iran’s blockage of the Strait. The citizens of these countries were protesting against their own governments. This is not only an example of just how far-reaching the unintended consequences can be when the US government launches a war. There’s also the possibility that by attacking Iran, the US could be creating new security crises that it will face in the years ahead.

The coming food shock

Worse may be yet to come: For one thing, even as many countries are struggling with the impact of high energy costs, oil prices haven’t yet surged to the levels many experts were anticipating if the Strait remained closed. If the Strait continues to stay closed, that may change as countries deplete their reserves. For another, if the Strait crisis........

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