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Why Trump’s tariffs could live forever 

6 1
06.08.2025
A banner showing President Donald Trump is displayed outside of the US Department of Agriculture building on June 3, 2025 in Washington, DC. | Kevin Carter/Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are slowing economic growth, raising prices, undermining American manufacturing, marginalizing the US geopolitically, and attracting widespread public opposition.

And future presidents may largely preserve them.

This is because Trump’s trade agenda is succeeding at one of its purported goals: The president’s tariffs are generating a lot of revenue for the US government.

So far this year, Uncle Sam collected more than $152 billion from taxes on foreign imports. If all of Trump’s current tariffs remain in place, they will yield $2.2 trillion of revenue over the coming decade, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

In other words, the president has effectively enacted the largest tax hike in modern US history — without Congress ever taking a vote.

Should the Supreme Court uphold these actions, they could transform America’s approach to fiscal policy. If sweeping taxes on foreign imports do not require congressional approval — while all other forms of taxation do — the US is liable to lean on the former.

Further, low taxes and growing spending on Medicare and Social Security are poised to swell US deficits over the coming decade. Faced with growing pressure to generate new revenues, future presidents may be reluctant to dig an even deeper hole by repealing Trump’s tariffs.

None of this means that Trump’s trade agenda is certain to survive. But for a policy that is both politically unpopular and economically unsound, it could prove difficult to dislodge.

The US is increasingly desperate for revenue – and Congress is increasingly averse to raising taxes

There is a fundamental tension at the heart of American fiscal policy: Our government’s need for revenue is rising, while Congress’s appetite for taxation is declining.

As the US population ages, providing public pensions and health insurance to older Americans has become more expensive. But instead of increasing taxes to account for this fact, Congress has enacted multiple sweeping tax cuts since 2000.

Of course, this was primarily the work of Republicans: Under Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump, the GOP slashed taxes, to the........

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