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Turns out the Trump economy is not doing so well after all

16 18
04.08.2025
President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of between 10 percent and 50 percent on the imports of all foreign countries. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

The US economy is bending — but not yet breaking — beneath the weight of President Donald Trump’s nationalist agenda.

That is the story told by an avalanche of economic data released last week.

According to those new figures, employers are pulling back on hiring to a dramatic (and unexpected) degree, economic growth is slowing, and consumer prices are rising. And there are strong indications that Trump’s trade and immigration policies are driving all of these trends.

While last week’s data provides little sign of an imminent recession or inflationary crisis, protectionism is still imposing a heavy toll on US households and businesses. And if hiring continues to slow — while firms’ input costs persistently rise — there is some risk that economic growth could stall out completely.

Unfortunately, Trump chose to compound that risk on Thursday by doubling down on his radical trade restrictions, imposing tariffs of between 10 percent and 50 percent on the imports of all foreign countries.

Here is a quick overview of America’s darkening economic picture.

American employers are pulling back on hiring

America’s labor market is much weaker than previously thought, a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report revealed on Friday. US employers added 73,000 jobs in July, far fewer than the 104,000 that economists expected.

More alarmingly, the report suggested that job growth was markedly weaker in May and June than the government had previously believed. The BLS always revises its estimates of monthly employment gains, once more data becomes available. Usually, these updates do not fundamentally change the labor market outlook. This time, they did.

The government initially thought that employers had added 144,000 jobs in May and 147,000 in June; it now believes that they added just 19,000 during the first month and 14,000 during the second. (Trump responded to this unwelcome information by declaring it fraudulent and firing the head of the BLS.)

This updated data suggests that Trump’s tariffs (and tariff threats) have had a detrimental impact on hiring. After he unveiled his plans for sweeping universal tariffs on April 1, employment in America’s manufacturing and “trade and........

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