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Will the Gaza ceasefire really stick?

3 0
10.10.2025
People lift a banner and portraits of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip during a rally in Tel Aviv on October 7, 2025. | Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images

After more than two years, Israel and Hamas have finally reached a ceasefire deal to free all remaining Israeli hostages and allow aid to flow into Gaza again. I spoke with my colleague Zack Beauchamp about the deal, what it could mean for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and what comes next for Vox’s daily newsletter, Today, Explained. Our conversation is below, and you can sign up for the newsletter here for more conversations like this.

Israel and Hamas have a deal. What’s been agreed upon?

Both Israel and Hamas have agreed to a staged process, but only phase one is fully agreed upon. The top line here is that you have the release of Israeli hostages and the bodies of those hostages that have died or been killed, in exchange for a release of Palestinian prisoners and an end to the fighting. Israel will withdraw from large chunks of the Gaza Strip, but it will retain a presence on the ground, at least during phase one. The most important thing is that they will stop fighting. There will be no more attacks happening inside Gaza, and aid will be allowed to flow into Gaza.

A month ago, Israel was bombing Hamas negotiators. How are we, a month later, at a deal?

Right now, based on the limited information we have, the key factor seems to be political will, specifically political will from the Trump administration. They had not been making a priority out of Israel-Palestine peace, to put it mildly, after the first ceasefire they brokered foundered in March.

Israel imposed the aid cutoff on Gaza, and the Trump administration basically said, Go ahead. We’re not going to do anything about it. And that led to the worst humanitarian crisis of war, including the outbreak of what appeared to be famine in Gaza.

Recently, the Trump administration decided that it wants to get back involved in trying to make an end to the Gaza war. It’s not clear exactly what the timeline was going to be, but that timeline changed when Israel attacked Doha, Qatar. The Trump administration has very strong ties to the Gulf Arab states, so they accelerated their timeline and started to put immense pressure on all of the different parties in lots of different ways to try to force a ceasefire.

How much credit........

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