Is Donald Trump going to risk throwing the global economy into crisis by enacting the gargantuan tariffs he’s proposed?

Or is he just pretending he’s willing to do that to strike a better deal?

On trade and many other issues, it’s clear Trump enjoys being seen as an unpredictable and dangerous figure and believes that image helps him intimidate others into giving him what he wants — a belief akin to Richard Nixon’s “madman theory.”

This theory that Trump’s most extreme threats are play-acting or bluffs is in some ways comforting. But there are real risks to having a president so committed to the madman bit — if indeed it is a bit.

Taken at face value, Trump appears to believe his tariffs have no downsides. He says that they’ll boost domestic industry, bring jobs back to the US, and raise substantial revenue. Tariff, he’s said, is the “most beautiful word in the dictionary.” He’s proposed 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all imports to the US, and has discussed 60 percent or higher tariffs on Chinese imports.

Yet economists and financiers have warned that if anything like Trump’s tariff proposals was actually implemented, they could well cause a trade war, resurgent US inflation, and a market panic, tanking the US and the global economy.

Many in the American business and finance elite dearly hope Trump understands these concerns, is bluffing to try and win concessions from other countries, and will scale back his tariffs to a more........

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