Since Election Day, president-elect Donald Trump and his allies have repeatedly claimed that he has a “mandate” to govern. But several political experts have cast doubts on those claims, citing historical election data to demonstrate that Trump’s win was by no measure an impressive victory.

In his victory speech in the early hours of November 6, Trump asserted that he was given an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” from voters, describing his coalition as “the broadest” and “most unified” in “all of American history.”

Republican lawmakers and conservative commentators have repeated the claim. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) wrote in a fundraiser email that “The American people have spoken, and they have given President Trump and our House Republicans a mandate.” And although he admitted that mandates had their limits (as evidenced by Trump’s failed pick of Matt Gaetz for Attorney General), Fox News personality Trey Gowdy similarly stated that Trump “won a mandate on Election Night…on the border, the economy, foreign policy” and “to reform and disrupt” Washington.

Presidents-elect throughout history have claimed that they have a mandate in order to shore up support for their causes, and to justify laws to drastically reshape U.S. governance or society. But experts have said that the evidence that Trump does not have a mandate is clear.

It’s hard to consider a presidential election victory a mandate, for example, when the candidate in question doesn’t win a majority of votes in the popular vote count. That’s the case for Trump in 2024, as his 77,034,011 votes make up just 49.86 percent of the total votes cast. While he attained more votes than his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, more people voted for her and third party candidates than for Trump.

Trump’s margin of victory over Harris is also narrower than the margin in other presidential elections. In the past 40 years of presidential elections, all but one of the races had larger popular vote differences than the 2024 contest did.........

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