Iran’s Protesters Are Caught Between State Repression and Foreign Intervention
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Iran has been under a government-imposed internet blackout for the last week, and very little information has emerged.
What we do know is that thousands have been killed since authorities launched a crackdown on protests that have spread across the country since late December. What started as anger centered in Tehran’s grand bazaar over the rapid fall in the value of Iran’s currency quickly spread to wider demands for political freedom. Authorities initially offered a series of economic compromises, including subsidies on basic goods, to help Iranians deal with skyrocketing inflation. But protests spread to small towns. And by January 8, a new wave of demonstrations unfolded, and authorities responded with violence on a wide scale.
The footage that emerged initially showed huge crowds in major cities like Tehran and Mashhad. But in the days since, those have given way to videos of sobbing families trying to identify the bodies of loved ones at overflowing morgues, or crowds chanting “death to the dictator” as they bury loved ones. Estimates of the number of Iranians slain are now above 2,500.
Protesters’ families are not the only ones grieving. Authorities claim that more than 100 members of the security forces have been killed. State TV has been filled with footage of morgues, as well. In one video, a reporter’s voice cracks as he laments the deaths of “ordinary people” killed by “rioters.” This is the line repeated by authorities, who claim armed groups backed by foreign powers have taken advantage of the people’s legitimate grievances.
It might be easy to dismiss these claims as propaganda if it were not for statements by Israeli authorities claiming Israel has agents operating on the ground. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah of Iran, who has allied himself with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, dismissed reports of thousands of dead protesters by saying, “This is a war, and casualties are inevitable.”
Trump has spent the last two weeks looking at options to strike Iran after promising that if Iran’s government hurt protesters, he would intervene to save them.
But this is not a war. These are popular protests by Iranians increasingly desperate amid a collapsing economy and enraged at a corrupt political leadership that represses freedom of speech and political participation. But foreign intervention — whether that be through military strikes or infiltration of protests — risks subverting these demands and turning protesters into pawns of foreign powers.
Six months ago, Israel and the U.S. launched a war on Iran. The war did not free Iranians, but it did kill more than 1,000 people and left tens of thousands homeless. Those who survived found themselves in a far worse economic situation than before.
Yet today there are renewed calls from members of the Iranian diaspora and U.S. politicians for Donald Trump to “do something” to help Iranians. Trump has spent the last two weeks looking at options to strike Iran after promising that if Iran’s government hurt protesters, he would intervene to save them.
Trump has indicated that he could gear up to play his favorite role: savior.
But it is hard to believe that a leader who clamps down on his own people and justifies militarized forces killing protesters in the U.S. has the interests of Iranians in mind.
It is even less believable given that Trump is directly responsible for the situation Iranians find themselves in.
The current economic crisis was caused by a rapid decline in the value of Iran’s currency, a direct result of Iran’s lack of access to foreign reserves. This is an “imposed crisis,” economist Esfandyar Batmanghelidj argues, “uniquely caused by U.S. sanctions.” It was aggravated by EU “snapback” sanctions that came into effect in the fall, limiting Iran’s access to foreign........
