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Bad News for Republicans, Warnings for Both Parties

10 25
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Virginia and New Jersey, the two states that voted for governor in 2025, both voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris over then-candidate Donald Trump by 52%-46% margins in 2024. Democrats ran significantly better in both states on Tuesday. One reason is that Trump Republicans, as an increasingly downscale party, see their turnout sag in off years than when the presidency is up. But that wasn't their only problem this time.

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and congresswoman, won 58%-42%, well ahead of her standing in most polls. Republicans who dismiss this result as reflecting the weakness of nominee Winsome Earle-Sears should note that Democrat Jay Jones beat incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares 53%-47%, despite the Oct. 3 revelation of Jones' text messages that he'd like to murder a colleague and see his children die in their mother's arms.

Some 46% of Virginia voters said this was disqualifying, but even some of them voted for Jones. It's evidence that hatred of Trump's party runs deep among many Democrats.

The most significant swing from 2024 was in northern Virginia, part of metropolitan Washington, which cast 33 percent of the state's votes. That's a highly educated, upscale community with a high percentage of federal and government contractor employees, but Republicans would be unwise to dismiss the Democratic gains as just a response to the government shutdown. It could be a forecast of what's in store for them in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Oakland County, Michigan; and Waukesha County, Wisconsin.

In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill. D-N.J., a Navy veteran, beat Republican Jack Ciatarelli 56%-43%, a big improvement on incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy's, D-N.J., 51%-48% squeaker against Ciatarelli four years ago. Sherrill's majority looked much like the 57%-41% Democratic advantage in the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which........

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