You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.

The resignation of Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet (but not the Liberal caucus) on Thursday, after Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to build an oil and bitumen pipeline to the Pacific coast, has made the agreement look like a bigger win for Alberta than it truly is.

Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.

Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Don't have an account? Create Account

I would give the Alberta government about a one-in-four chance — at best — of getting a new pipeline built, even after Thursday’s MOU.

The memorandum does nothing to repeal Carney’s guarantee of a veto over the line to B.C.’s NDP government and to West Coast First Nations. It makes no federal promise to help persuade B.C. or First Nations, either.

Those two obstacles alone are likely to be enough to block the pipeline.

Then there are requirements for an expensive industrial carbon tax on Alberta businesses and a massive, $15-billion carbon-capture infrastructure.

Nor is there a guarantee of lifting the ban on oil tankers off the West Coast. The wording of the MOU gives hope the ban could be lifted if Alberta gets all the constitutional, regulatory, financial and environmental ducks in a row — on its own. But since Ottawa will not help herd those ducks, there’s only an outside chance the feds will ever have to permit oil tankers off B.C.’s northwest coast. So the MOU’s federal promises are largely hypothetical.

Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond.

By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of Your Midday Sun will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an........

© Toronto Sun