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Last week, I wrote that there would not be a snap federal election until such time as the Liberals’ seat projections — not their raw polling numbers, but the number of seats they are likely to win — shows them comfortably in majority territory.

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Now it appears, that time may be approaching.

Pierre Poilievre may have wowed his own party at its convention in Calgary at the end of January winning more than 87 per cent support in his leadership review.

But that partisan support has not translated into similar support among the broader electorate. The most recent Nanos PM tracker poll shows Mark Carney is the choice for prime minister of more than twice as many Canadians as Poilievre. Carney wins the credibility contest by 53 per cent to 24 per cent, a level of approval that has been more or less consistent since last fall.

The Liberals and Conservatives are much closer as parties. Most polls show them between four and nine per cent apart, which means the Liberals seat projection may........

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