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CHARLEBOIS: Which CUSMA strategy is it this week, PM Mark Carney?

Messaging matters, especially when delivered in a widely viewed address, suggesting that CUSMA is somehow on life support

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There is something almost too convenient in how quickly Canadians point south when discussing unpredictability in trade. Yes, Donald Trump has long been synonymous with volatility. But focusing solely on Washington risks missing a more uncomfortable truth: Ottawa has become just as difficult to read.

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Under Mark Carney, Canada’s posture toward the United States has shifted with surprising speed — less theatrical than Trump’s, but no less consequential. In April 2025, we were promised a renewed economic and security partnership. By the summer, we were told the existing deal was already the best possible outcome. Fast forward to April 2026, and suddenly our reliance on the U.S. is framed as a strategic weakness. All of this, notably, after months without meaningful engagement or negotiation.

CHARLEBOIS: Which CUSMA strategy is it this week, PM Mark Carney? Back to video

That messaging matters. Especially when delivered in a widely viewed address, suggesting that CUSMA — the backbone of North American trade — is somehow on life support. It leaves the industry asking a basic question: What exactly is the plan?

The revival of a Trudeau-era advisory council might suggest renewed seriousness. And to be fair, its composition is more balanced than critics might assume. Figures like Ken Seitz and Michael Harvey bring genuine expertise in fertilizers and agricultural trade — critical inputs for food production. Others offer adjacent perspectives: Jean Simard understands packaging and processing supply chains; Jonathan Price connects to resource extraction essential for fertilizer inputs; and P. J. Akeeagok brings a grounded view of food security in remote regions.

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This is not an absence of agri-food knowledge. It is, however, an indirect one.

Voices of primary producers missing

What is missing is arguably more important: primary producers. Farmers. Western Canadian voices. Those operating at the very front lines of production. In a sector that is geographically vast and structurally complex, that omission is not trivial — it is strategic.

And strategy is precisely what Canada lacks right now.

For an agri-food sector that sends roughly 75% of its exports to the United States, policy ambiguity is not an academic concern — it is a business risk. Increasingly, companies are not waiting for clarity. They are hiring consultants, restructuring supply chains, and preparing for a post-CUSMA environment. Not because it is inevitable, but because it is conceivable.

That alone should raise alarms.

While Canada debates its posture, Mexico is moving decisively — and intelligently. Under socialist Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican government has demonstrated a level of strategic discipline that Canada would do well to study. Despite repeated provocations — from being labelled a “narco-president,” to symbolic disputes like the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico, to the ever-present rhetoric around border walls — Mexico has largely refused to take the bait.

Instead of reacting to the noise, it has stayed focused on the signal: trade, production, and integration.

That approach has paid off. Mexico did not escalate. It did not grandstand. It did not reframe the partnership as a liability. It simply continued to deepen its role within the North American economy. And in doing so, it has strengthened its position as the United States’ most reliable agricultural and manufacturing partner.

The result? Mexico is no longer just a participant in continental trade — it is becoming central to it. It is positioning itself as America’s fresh food basket, a year-round agricultural partner, and a seamless extension of the U.S. logistics and supply chain system.

Relationship not without friction

Meanwhile, Canada risks drifting into a narrower role: A bulk commodity supplier with diminishing influence over consumer-facing markets.

The contrast is striking. The U.S.–Mexico relationship is not without friction, but it is fundamentally aligned. Disputes happen within the partnership — not about its existence. Supply chains are being integrated, not questioned. The direction of travel is clear.

Canada’s is not. And that is the real problem.

Trade relationships do not unravel overnight. They erode gradually — through hesitation, mixed messaging, and missed opportunities. What we are witnessing today is not a collapse, but a slow decoupling of strategic intent.

For a country whose prosperity is so tightly linked to cross-border trade, particularly in food, that is a risk we can ill afford.

Because in the end, markets reward certainty. And right now, Canada is offering anything but.

– Sylvain Charlebois is director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, co-host of The Food Professor Podcast and visiting scholar at McGill University

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