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LILLEY: With NDP floor crosser, Carney effectively has a majority now

The Liberals are most likely to win all three byelections, which would give then a slight cushion with a two-seat majority

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Mark Carney moved one step closer to a majority government overnight as another MP crossed the floor to join the Liberals. This time it was a New Democrat, not a Conservative, who decided to join as Nunavut MP Lori Idlout changed teams.

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The move comes just days after Idlout endorsed radical socialist Avi Lewis in his bid to become leader of the NDP.

LILLEY: With NDP floor crosser, Carney effectively has a majority now Back to video

For political watchers, Idlout’s crossing is no surprise — it’s been mused about for months. Carney and his team have courted Idlout, including announcing more than $250 million in new funding for projects in Nunavut in last November’s budget.

Idlout’s future has been the subject of much speculation since the budget and the decision by Conservative MP Chris D’Entremont to cross the floor and join the Liberals. In January, Idlout told CBC North that she had been asked to join Carney’s party, had considered it, but couldn’t do it at that point.

What Idlout said of her reasons

Shortly after 1 a.m. on Wednesday, Idlout released a statement explaining her decision to join Team Carney.

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“I have been hearing clearly from Nunavummiut that this is a crucial moment for Nunavut and for all of Canada,” Idlout said, noting threats against Canada’s sovereignty and the well-being of the North.

“That is why after much personal reflection and encouragement from my community, family and supporters, I have decided to join the government caucus and to work alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney to build the better future that Nunavummiut are counting on.”

Her decision to jump ship wasn’t made public by her or the Liberal Party but was revealed after a statement was issued by NDP interim leader Don Davies, who denounced the move.

“The position of the New Democrats on floor crossing is longstanding and clear. We believe that when someone rejects the decision of their electors and wants to join another party, they should put that decision to their voters,” Davies said.

Idlout won’t be resigning anytime soon, and voters in Nunavut won’t get their say on her floor crossing in a byelection. However, Idlout’s decision to join the Liberals means that of the three byelections on now, the Liberals only need to win two in order to secure a majority.

Liberals’ byelection wins likely

The reality is, the Liberals are most likely to win all three byelections, which would give then a slight cushion with a two-seat majority. Two of the byelections are in Liberal strongholds in Toronto, and in the third race in Terrebonne, just north of Montreal, the Liberals have a significant spending advantage.

Terrebonne is a race between the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois. The Bloc previously held the riding but lost to the Liberals by just one vote last April. That result was overturned by the Supreme Court in February over a complaint that Elections Canada put the wrong return address on envelopes for mail-in ballots so not all votes were counted.

While each candidate has the same spending limit in a byelection, each party running also has a spending limit for each byelection. The Liberals are running in three byelections and the Bloc only in one and nothing in the rules prevents the Liberals from spending most or all of their party funds in Terrebonne.

Add to that the fact that the Liberals are polling high in Quebec at the moment and Carney’s majority plus one appears to be a sure thing.

Carney’s odd coalition

It’s an odd coalition that Carney has put together to get to this point.

Just days ago in Ottawa, Idlout endorsed Avi Lewis to be leader of the NDP. Lewis supports several radical ideas including the government owning mobile phone and internet companies, a government-run grocery store, and a bank run through Canada Post.

Chris D’Entremont has been associated with Parliament’s Pro-Life Caucus in the past and is opposed to abortion, while Michael Ma is a wealthy former business executive and Matt Jeneroux was elected five times as a Conservative before becoming a Liberal.

Now, they all sit in Mark Carney’s Liberal caucus and Canada effectively has a majority government.

blilley@postmedia.com

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