In his dealings with China so far, President Donald Trump has been right on one thing: He didn’t let Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te make a stopover in New York City on his way to Latin America. That was the opposite decision of Joe Biden, who allowed Lai’s predecessor Tsai Ing-wen on a sensitive New York City stopover two years ago. And unlike Biden who “gaffed” four times to say the U.S. will defend Taiwan in the event of an attack from the Chinese mainland, Trump made it clear he wasn’t interested in going to war with China.

Such caution is commendable. The only issue that can drag the two titans into a full-blown conflict is the Taiwan issue. Reunification with Taiwan is a must for China. The only question is how—will a stronger China become more confident in eventual peaceful reunification one day or will it become more impatient to resort to use of force?

Read More: Taiwan in the Shadow of War

A short answer is: it depends on the Taiwanese authorities. Both Lai and his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen are from the Democratic Progressive Party that advocates a separate Taiwanese national identity. But Lai, a self-described “practical worker for Taiwan independence,” appears more dangerous. Lai has prevented cross-strait people-to-people exchanges in the name of “opposing China’s united front work.” He

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