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The US-Israeli war against Iran seems to be readying itself for its third round. Just by surviving the first, Iran was the clear victor. The second round was a draw – Iran blockaded Hormuz, and in turn was blockaded by the United States. Just how the third will turn out is still not clear.

On Sunday (May 3), Trump announced that in a “humanitarian” move, the US Navy will help the ships of foreign countries through Hormuz from Monday (May 4) onwards and if Iran tries to disrupt the process that could result in war. But it is not yet clear what his plan would involve.

There is considerable confusion over the various proposals and counter-proposals floating around. But in essence, as of now Trump has rejected an Iranian plan which essentially calls for the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, an end to the war, followed by nuclear negotiations at a later stage. Not surprisingly, the US responded with amendments that front-load the nuclear issue. However, in a plan reportedly put forward on Sunday, Iran has said that it was willing to suspend enrichment for 15 years or so and give a “no stockpiling” commitment. But the proposal rejected the idea of dismantling the nuclear infrastructure or destroying its facilities.

“There are options. Do we want to go and just blast the hell out of them and finish them forever or do we want to try and make a deal. Those are the options,” Trump said last Friday (May 1), adding that he preferred not to resume the bombing.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

Neither of these options look good for him. The first is military escalation, but that would have broader consequences for the global economy and even then it is unlikely to have decisive results in pushing Iran on the nuclear front. The second is a negotiated agreement that would require Trump to make significant concessions. With both sides believing they have the upper hand, or seeking to achieve it, a compromise looks somewhat difficult at this stage.

One option being explored by the US is to revive its coalition to have a multi-national operation to keep Hormuz open. Trump is still hoping that what he couldn’t achieve by bombing could be gained by a prolonged blockade. Iran is aware of the danger that the blockade represents and in Tehran it is not seen as another form of war. Iranian decision-makers may soon conclude........

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