For the past month, John Hogan has been doing his best to make the ballot question in Newfoundland and Labrador’s election today all about the province’s energy future. In mid-September, as the premier greeted voters in Happy Valley-Goose Bay—a regional service town in central Labrador—he made a vow. If his Liberal government is re-elected, he’ll ensure the proposed redevelopment of the massive Churchill Falls hydroelectric project goes ahead, turbo-charging the provincial economy and righting a decades-long dispute with neighbouring Quebec.

The Labrador project and a tentative new development deal with Quebec are vital to provincial coffers, promising to unlock hundreds of billions in new revenue and creating an estimated 8,000 new jobs, radically transforming the economic outlook of a province that, five years ago, was flirting with financial disaster. By centring his campaign around Churchill Falls, Hogan is hoping all these promised riches will be enough to win the Liberals their fourth consecutive mandate.

He hasn’t had much time to drive the message home or endear himself to voters: the provincial election was called mid-September, the latest date possible under the province’s fixed election law. And Hogan has been in the premier’s chair just a few short months, taking the reins after the shock resignation of Andrew Furey, the popular orthopedic surgeon who navigated the province through the choppy waters of the COVID-19 pandemic and signed the new Churchill Falls memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Quebec premier François Legault in 2024.

Churchill Falls isn’t solely a Liberal priority. The opposition Progressive Conservatives, led by Tony Wakeham, support the project but are calling for more transparency in how the final deal is negotiated. They’re also trying hard to pivot the election’s focus toward issues like health care and crime.

But dealing with Churchill Falls will be inescapable. Whoever wins will be expected to shepherd a final Churchill Falls agreement across the finish line sometime in 2026. During his whistle-stop tour in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, near the mouth of the Churchill River, Hogan promised a Labrador Community Engagement Committee comprised of local residents and partners to help the region prepare for new expansion. Wakeham has vowed to put any final agreement to a province-wide referendum.

Yet with spotty polling, pushback from some voters, and Indigenous communities protesting the expansion of Churchill Falls, experts have cautioned that the election is too close to call. It’s anyone’s guess whether Hogan or Wakeham will be the leader to usher Newfoundland and Labrador into a potentially prosperous new era. Or whether it’s smart to hinge an entire campaign on a tentative deal.

The original 1969 Churchill Falls arrangement has been a source of rage and humiliation for generations of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. The hydroelectric project is one of the largest in the world, involving a series of dykes on the Churchill River, as well as an underground power-generating station that transmits much of its electricity into Quebec. Signed into law by then premier Joey Smallwood, who was........

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