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Quebec’s Governing Party Running Out of Time to Save Itself

In the leadership race, Christine Fréchette pulls ahead of Bernard Drainville as the CAQ faces political collapse

With five weeks to go before members of Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) choose their new leader, and therefore new premier, the stakes are high.

CAQ is a centre-right party founded by François Legault that has governed Quebec for the last eight years. It pushes for greater autonomy within Canada, stopping just short of sovereignty. Boxed in by its unpopular record, the CAQ has been trailing its rivals in public support since fall of 2023. It now finds itself in danger of losing virtually of all its current members of the National Assembly, according to the 338Canada Quebec projection.

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A new Quebec poll from Pallas Data—whose top-line results showed a significant narrowing of voting intentions between the Liberals and the Parti Québécois, while the CAQ was barely recovering from its low point—reveals that in the race to succeed Legault, two different visions of the party are emerging.

On one hand, Bernard Drainville argues the party drifted from its original 2018 mission and calls for a return to a leaner, more ideologically assertive form of CAQ nationalism. On the other, Christine Fréchette positions herself much closer to the party’s governing record, emphasizing better economic competence while acknowledging missteps during the Legault years. In sum: one candidate says the CAQ lost its nerve, while the other says it just needs to govern better.

At this stage of the race, the data paints a clear contrast. In terms of personal impressions of the candidates, respondents express a marked preference for Fréchette. When asked, “Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of . . . ?” 26 percent say they favour her. That’s double the result obtained by Drainville. On the unfavourable side, Fréchette garnered 32 percent, compared to 62 percent for Drainville—again, a ratio of two to one in favour of the former “super minister” of the economy, among other positions.

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This results in radically different net approval ratings (net rating: favourable impressions minus unfavourable impressions): Fréchette has a fairly lukewarm net approval rating of minus six, while Drainville has an abysmal personal rating of minus fifty.

While Drainville enjoys greater name recognition, this comes with a heavy burden of negative impressions. Conversely, former cabinet minister Fréchette, although less well known by the Quebec electorate, appears better positioned to—perhaps—give the CAQ some breathing room at the end of this political cycle.

It may not be enough to save the party from defeat. But it would at least clarify whether it intends to go down defending its past or gambling on a different future.

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Where it matters most—that is, among CAQ voters, who will be the ones picking the new leader—Fréchette’s lead far exceeds the margin of error: she has a net score of plus twenty-six among CAQ supporters, compared to minus thirty-one for Drainville. Among French-speaking voters, Fréchette also enjoys a considerable advantage over her opponent.

Compared to other party leaders, Drainville ranks at the bottom of the table (see chart below). His favourable rating (12.5 percent) places him behind Quebec Conservative leader Éric Duhaime and just ahead of Legault, while more than 60 percent of respondents say they have an unfavourable impression of him.

Drainville thus appears to be one of the least popular figures in Quebec politics.

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Fréchette and new Liberal leader Charles Milliard suffer from a lack of name recognition, which is reflected in the proportion of respondents who are undecided and remain neutral about their proposals. This is a double-edged sword in politics. If Fréchette wins the CAQ leadership on April 12, her first weeks in the spotlight will be decisive for the future of her party and her political career.

But beyond general impressions, how do these perceptions translate when respondents are asked explicitly which of the two candidates would make the best premier? Because, let us recall, the winner of the CAQ leadership race will become premier until the next general election. In a direct head-to-head matchup, Fréchette stands in a complete other league than Drainville, winning by a margin of thirty points: 47 percent to 17 percent.

The demographic breakdowns are unanimous. In each of the subgroups analyzed, more Quebecers believe Fréchette would make a better premier than Drainville by a wide margin.

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The only notable exception is among Conservative voters, among whom Drainville slightly leads Fréchette, 31 percent to 24 percent. Drainville’s decidedly more right-wing rhetoric is no doubt a factor here.

This lead is also very clear when broken down by party affiliation. Among CAQ voters, 57 percent believe Fréchette would make a better premier, compared to 29 percent for Drainville—a gap difficult to ignore in the context of a leadership race, especially since survival of the party could potentially rest entirely on Fréchette’s shoulders. No pressure.

This Pallas Data poll was conducted on February 21 and 22, 2026, among a random sample of 1,075 Quebec respondents aged eighteen and over. The data was collected by interactive voice response using telephone calls to landlines and cell phones. The poll was commissioned by 338Canada. The margin of error on the complete sample is ±3 percent, nineteen times out of twenty.

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