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Quebec’s Governing Party Running Out of Time to Save Itself

In the leadership race, Christine Fréchette pulls ahead of Bernard Drainville as the CAQ faces political collapse

With five weeks to go before members of Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) choose their new leader, and therefore new premier, the stakes are high.

CAQ is a centre-right party founded by François Legault that has governed Quebec for the last eight years. It pushes for greater autonomy within Canada, stopping just short of sovereignty. Boxed in by its unpopular record, the CAQ has been trailing its rivals in public support since fall of 2023. It now finds itself in danger of losing virtually of all its current members of the National Assembly, according to the 338Canada Quebec projection.

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A new Quebec poll from Pallas Data—whose top-line results showed a significant narrowing of voting intentions between the Liberals and the Parti Québécois, while the CAQ was barely recovering from its low point—reveals that in the race to succeed Legault, two different visions of the party are emerging.

On one hand, Bernard Drainville argues the party drifted from its original 2018 mission and calls for a return to a leaner, more ideologically assertive form of CAQ nationalism. On the other, Christine Fréchette positions herself much closer to the party’s governing record, emphasizing better economic competence while acknowledging missteps during the Legault years. In sum: one candidate says the CAQ lost its nerve, while the other says it just needs to govern better.

At this stage of the race, the data paints a clear contrast. In terms of personal impressions of the candidates, respondents express a marked preference for Fréchette. When asked, “Do you........

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