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Pierre Poilievre’s Great Unravelling

He looked destined to become prime minister. Now he’s struggling to find his place in Carney’s Canada

Mark Carney has achieved something close to rock-star status for being one of the only world leaders to stand up to United States president Donald Trump. Breaking off trade talks with the US carries enormous risks, but according to Angus Reid, 76 percent of Canadians back the prime minister’s decision. “They asked too much,” he explained, with characteristic crispness, “and offered too little.”

Polling shows that only 22 percent of Canadians rank Pierre Poilievre as their preferred prime minister

Carney’s professional handling of current crises meets the political moment, while Poilievre is stuck in his grievances

Poilievre’s refusal to reflect seriously on his 2025 loss betrays a sense of entitlement that may prove fatal

So where does this leave Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, the career politician who needs to convince those same Canadians that he’d do a better job running things?

Bluntly, he’s toast. Just under half of the country says that Carney is their preferred prime minister, compared to only 22 percent for Poilievre. Given that the core Tory base sits at 23 percent as per Abacus Data, Carney’s appeal seems to extend to voters Poilievre is counting on.

Poilievre is stuck in a mess that, though events have played a role, is largely of his own making. He had a window to power, but it pretty much closed when he lost the general election in 2025 to Carney and his long-held seat in Carlton, Ottawa. For more than two years, he built a powerful case against Justin Trudeau and Liberal elitism. After seven years in power, Trudeau was wearing thin. COVID-19 had opened divisions his government could neither contain nor close. Voters were looking for someone to blame for inflation, the rising cost of living, and basically everything going wrong in their lives. Poilievre was a master of channelling that anger and had the poll numbers to show for it. Everything was falling into place. He was the anti-Trudeau. He was the prime minister in waiting.

But in January of 2025, following Chrystia Freeland’s shocking resignation from cabinet, Trudeau finally, if reluctantly, decided to step away. And without his dance partner, Poilievre has been unable to find his feet. This led to a reversal in fortunes most observers would have thought impossible. Beyond watching his commanding advantage evaporate and his coronation recede, Poilievre has had to watch Carney—the businessman, the banker, the economist—become a formidable prime minister capable of redrawing the political terrain entirely around him. It’s the kind of momentum that doesn’t merely attract voters; it pulls apart the opposition. Four Conservative members of Parliament have crossed the floor to the Liberals.

Defections happen. These, however, have cracked open questions about Poilievre’s hold on his own caucus and his........

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