As a Quebecer living just on the other side of the river from the Ottawa Bubble, I know how little attention is generally paid to Quebec’s provincial politics. Our language, history, and culture make Quebec notoriously hard to grasp for decision makers in the nation’s capital. This is not a critique, simply a fact.

And while concern about the separatist movement in Alberta has led to the federal government making some questionable policy choices (yes, memorandum of understanding, I’m looking at you), the question of a potential looming referendum in Quebec has, so far, appeared not to have been top of mind for most federal decision makers—even taking into account Doug Ford’s outburst at last week’s Council of the Federation meeting that a Parti Québécois victory in Quebec’s upcoming election would be a “disaster” for Canada.

The separatist PQ, relegated to their lowest ever number of seats in the 2022 election, has made a stunning comeback over the past few years. They won three out of four by-elections this term and are poised to form the next government if their lead continues in the polls.

Now more than ever, I believe that anyone interested in federal policy making, and the Prime Minister’s Office in particular, would do well to closely monitor the events happening in La Belle Province.

The risk of a referendum hasn’t been as high in thirty years. I know a referendum sounds like a long shot, and maybe it is. Ten months in politics is an eternity. Recent mishaps give credence to the theory that PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon—known colloquially as “PSPP”—will pull a Pierre Poilievre and convince enough voters he’s not fit for the job. Any way you look at the current context, his party is undeniably the most likely to form government right now. Should they win in November, the PQ has promised a referendum in their first mandate.

Every time I’ve shared this tidbit with folks outside of Quebec, I’ve been met with a barrage of “it wouldn’t make economic sense given the trade conflict with the US,” “there’s no appetite for a referendum right now,” or “have they ever heard about Brexit?!” type comments. These are all fair points. Publicly and privately, former PQ tenors have also tried to encourage their........

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