Hezbollah’s decision to fire on Israel overnight Monday — ending months of relative quiet along the northern border — was not just a military move. It was a signal.

Despite being pounded by Israel in the 2024 war, Hezbollah retains one of the largest missile arsenals of any non-state actor in the world.

According to estimates from the Alma Research and Education Center, which analyzes security challenges on Israel’s northern borders, as of February 26, the terror group had as many as 25,000 rockets and missiles — largely short and medium range — along with roughly 1,000 suicide drones. Its manpower is equally formidable: up to 100,000 regular and reserve operatives, including 5,000 fighters in the elite Radwan Force, described by Alma as “the core of the ground offensive force.”

According to Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of Alma, Hezbollah’s decision to join Iran’s fight against Israel came as no surprise.

“We knew that once they got the orders from Iran, they would join,” she said.

And yet, when Hezbollah launched its rocket attack on Israel — its first since the US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect in November 2024 — the strike was limited in comparison to previous engagements.

Residents of Southern Lebanon filmed the launch of several rockets earlier by Hezbollah at Haifa in Northern Israel, with several of the rockets falling short and at least one being intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. pic.twitter.com/IG4oTfW7JF — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 1, 2026

Residents of Southern Lebanon filmed the launch of several rockets earlier by Hezbollah at Haifa in Northern Israel, with several of the rockets falling short and at least one being intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. pic.twitter.com/IG4oTfW7JF

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 1, 2026

Rather than unleashing sustained barrages or deploying significant portions of its long-range arsenal, the group has fired only a relatively small number of rockets and drones at Israel, and only began sending longer-range projectiles toward Tel Aviv on Tuesday.

Israeli officials have acknowledged some surprise at the ranges involved, with a senior official telling Channel 13 that Israel “didn’t think they would fire at these ranges.”

Still, the relatively measured pace of attacks, despite Hezbollah’s far larger arsenal, has led analysts to conclude that the group is calibrating its involvement rather than committing fully to the fight.

“That was them signaling [to Tehran], that ‘we’re still your proxy, but we’re going to do the bare minimum,'” Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, told The Times of Israel, adding that Hezbollah knew the price they were going to pay if they got involved.

Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, agreed with that assessment, emphasizing that Hezbollah’s renewed and restrained offensive is not enough to tip the scales in the current military exchange between Israel and Iran, triggered by Jerusalem’s Operation Roaring Lion on Saturday.

“It doesn’t change the scope of the battle against Iran,” he said. “It does mean [Israel] will have to dedicate some of [its] assets in order to deal with Hezbollah, not a major part of them, but some.”

In practice, Israel largely uses different air defense resources to counter Hezbollah’s threats than it does against those from Iran. Hezbollah’s largely short- and medium-range rockets are typically intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems, while Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles are countered by the Arrow defense system.

Roman assessed that Hezbollah is likely trying to preserve its long-range artillery, precision-guided........

© The Times of Israel