ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Hamas participated in disarmament talks in Cairo this week, and while some progress was made, officials familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel that mediators of the tenuous Gaza ceasefire do not think a breakthrough is likely before Israeli elections in the fall.

Operating under the auspices of the US-led Board of Peace, Middle East mediators Egypt, Qatar and Turkey faced an uphill battle from the onset of negotiations late last year, with the stated goals of disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip appearing to be nonstarters for both sides.

The Board of Peace’s Gaza envoy, Nickolay Mladenov, has made clear in recent months that the bigger obstacle has been Hamas’s refusal to give up its weapons, as envisioned by US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for ending the Gaza war, which the Board of Peace is tasked with implementing.

Hamas has dragged out disarmament talks, chiefly arguing that it shouldn’t be expected to execute what is seen as the second phase of Trump’s plan if Israel has failed to uphold many conditions of the first phase regarding humanitarian aid, pulling back troops, reopening Gaza’s main crossing and halting strikes.

Mladenov has argued that Hamas should only expect Israel to adhere to those commitments if the terror group gets on board with the phase two disarmament requirement, The Times of Israel revealed last month.

But a diplomat from each of the mediating countries told The Times of Israel this week that Israeli officials indicated that even if Hamas were to agree now to start the process of disarming, Jerusalem is unlikely to be willing to take the steps necessary to advance the deal.

The Board of Peace’s 15-point disarmament plan envisions a gradual process based on the principle of reciprocity, with Israel expected to immediately withdraw from the areas where Hamas agrees to give up its weapons.

Such withdrawals of Israeli troops — who in recent weeks have pushed deeper into the Strip in violation of the October 2025 agreement that ended the Gaza war after over two years — are far less likely, given that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now just several months away from one of the most daunting reelection campaigns of his political career, the diplomats said.

The diplomats said their analyses were based on conversations with Israeli counterparts in recent months, during which the latter expressed significant skepticism about the chances of the Trump plan succeeding. And as the elections approach, questions to Israeli counterparts regarding the implementation of specific measures in the US plan have gone from receiving substantive pushback to getting no response whatsoever.

The date of the national vote has not yet been set, but it will take place in either September or October, and Netanyahu’s opponents are already calling him out for failing to defeat Hamas in Gaza after repeatedly promising “total victory.”

Accordingly, pulling Israeli forces back from Gaza — even if that were preceded by beginning to hand over some of its........

© The Times of Israel