Riyadh bought protection from Ankara and Islamabad and imported their vetoes into its own security core. Neither will fight Saudi Arabia’s war with Iran; both need Tehran intact, while Turkey shields Hamas and profits when IMEC stalls. Jerusalem will not expose sensitive systems to Turkish or Pakistani access. Normalization is no Saudi gift to Israel; it is Riyadh’s route back to sovereignty. Palestinian separation is no concession to Riyadh; it is an Israeli interest Turkey works to obstruct. Riyadh institutionalized the dependence; Israel will price the exit. That is the Mecca premium.

The Mecca agreement brought Turkey and Pakistan into the core of Saudi security and gave them a market, capital, production, maintenance, status and access in exchange for a guarantee. The three have no common enemy. India is not Saudi Arabia’s enemy; Ankara and Islamabad are not fighting Riyadh’s war against Iran, and both need relations with Tehran. Jerusalem and Riyadh share a front: Iran and its proxies, from Yemen’s Houthis and pro Iranian militias in Iraq to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The guarantee awaits a crisis. Institutional penetration does not.

Days after the agreement, the Houthis resumed attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Under an earlier defense agreement with Riyadh, Pakistan stayed out of the war even as hundreds of missiles and drones from Iran and its proxies struck the Kingdom. Under the new agreement too, an attack on one is defined as an attack on all, but assistance is determined through consultation. The assistance did not come.

The US Treasury documented that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force deposited millions of dollars with the Turkish company Al Aman Kargo for transfer to the Houthi network attacking Saudi oil and shipping. The company was established months after the Erdoğan government closed a broad investigation into a Quds Force network in Turkey; the investigators were dismissed and the suspects were not prosecuted. The procurement chain also ran through Turkey: a German component imported by a company in Istanbul........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)