The Ontological Bubble of Israeli Society Through the Lens of a New Survey

Research conducted by the Dor Moriah Analytical Center in partnership with the Geocartography Center as part of the Haifa Format project. Sample: 1,009 respondents, representative of Israel’s population aged 18 . Margin of error: ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

On February 2, 2026, opposition leader Yair Lapid, following a briefing with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, declared: “The entire State of Israel is united against Iran. We have no disagreements about the importance of confronting this threat.”[1] The day before, both sides had been trading accusations on social media over the “Qatar affair.” The next day—they sat together at the same table on security matters.

This contrast—public warfare within and demonstrative unity without—captures the pulse of contemporary Israeli politics. But behind the ritual of “unity against an external enemy” lies a reality revealed by sociological survey data collected by the Dor Moriah Analytical Center in partnership with the Geocartography Center in early January 2026.

The key paradox: even as politicians demonstrate foreign policy unity, society internally remains fractured. Moreover, we’re not talking about familiar disagreements, but rather a phenomenon that Dor Moriah researchers, through a cycle of 14 sociological studies (2023–2025, over 14,000 respondents), have identified as an ontological bubble—a condition where society splits not merely in opinions, but in the very perception of reality itself: the same events appear completely different to different groups.

Methodological Note: This analysis employs a balance index—the difference between the share of positive and negative assessments. For example, if 50% of respondents rated a situation positively and 20% negatively, the balance index would be 30 percentage points. This metric allows us to clearly see the direction and intensity of public sentiment.

What Is an Ontological Bubble and Why It’s Not Simply “Polarization”

Traditional polarization occurs when people diverge in opinions but exist within the same informational and value framework. An ontological bubble is a qualitatively different state. Its characteristics include: impermeability to alternative facts, dehumanization of opponents, “packaged” perception of positions (where one’s view on religion automatically determines positions on economics, security, and geopolitics), and the formation of emotional dependency on confirmation of one’s own rightness.

Previous Dor Moriah research identified the formation of two stable worldview clusters within Israeli society—religiously-oriented and secular-modernist—with high internal coherence. 61% of Israelis systematically choose radical positions on key issues, and 76% of them reproduce these positions consistently, regardless of the specific topic.

The January 2026 survey provides an opportunity to test how the ontological bubble manifests not in abstract dichotomies, but in assessments of the lived year—events that everyone experienced simultaneously but, as it turns out, in completely different realities.

One Year — Two Realities

Israelis’ assessments of how the country handled foreign policy and defense challenges in 2025 yield an overall balance index of 12.6 percentage points—a moderately positive result. However, behind this average temperature lies a deep divide among different social groups.

Among religious Israelis, the balance index stands at 49.1 percentage points, while among secular Israelis it goes negative (−4.2 p.p.), and in the Arab sector becomes even more negative (−14.3 p.p.).

Thus, the same year 2025 is perceived as successful by some and unsuccessful by others.

Chart 1: Balance Index for Assessment of Israel’s Achievements in 2025

The gap between secular and religious Israelis amounts to 53 percentage points. This is not........

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