Israel’s recognition of Somaliland closed a long-running diplomatic debate but opened a more consequential question: what follows recognition in a region where power rarely waits for process? In the Horn of Africa, political decisions not backed by action tend to create space and that space is quickly occupied.

The initiative by Jerusalem now carries consequences. Recent reporting in The National and an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal by Somaliland’s president point to a Horn entering both a hopeful and volatile phase. Egypt is expanding its military posture in Somalia, where it already maintains a sizeable force. Red Sea powers and their allies are repurposing and extending their influence along the Red Sea corridor. Proxy forces and religious movements are also adapting faster than formal diplomacy. In this environment, recognition, while consequential, requires follow-through driven by an enforceable strategy.

The Horn has long been a testing ground for indirect confrontation, where states compete through local partners, militias, religious networks, and mercenaries. This competition explains how non-state actors move quickly, filling gaps when credible state partnerships hesitate. Influence is often accumulated incrementally by both sovereign states and their proxy networks through training missions, port access, and political cover.

Israel is not unfamiliar with this dynamic. Its security approach is shaped by environments where ambiguity........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)