In an era of overlapping crises, geography no longer confines strategy. For Israel, stability in East Asia–particularly the evolving security cooperation between Japan and South Korea–is not a distant concern. It is increasingly tied to the balance of power in the Middle East.

At first glance, this connection may appear shallow. However, the emerging risk of a dual contingency–China attempting to invade Taiwan, and North Korea opportunistically heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula at the same time–has implications that go far beyond East Asia. The scenario would not only reshape the regional order of the Indo-Pacific, but also heavily impact the US strategic bandwidth across multiple theaters.

For decades, Israel’s security environment has been shaped by the assumption of enduring US military superiority. Nevertheless, this assumption is now under growing strain. Washington needs to deter China, manage Russia’s escalation in Europe, and maintain stability in the Middle East simultaneously. Under a dual contingency scenario, US troops deployed in East Asia would likely be tied down in the opening phase of the Taiwan conflict, while reinforcement from the continental United States to the Korean Peninsula may be either delayed or thinned out. The result is not merely a question about availability, but of time. Strategic attention, logistics, and priority setting would also be under pressure.

Such dynamics have direct implications for Israel. A US deeply engaged in East Asia may have fewer resources to immediately respond to escalated tensions involving Iran and its regional network of proxies. Naturally,........

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