Do public opinion polls actually reflect genuine public opinion?

I am frequently asked about public opinion in Israel and in Palestine – especially about what people in Gaza think. My answer since October 7, 2023, has been that wartime polls have no real relevance regarding a longer perspective of where the publics might be a year after the war.  I caution that all polls are a snapshot of a moment in passing time. Wartime polls reflect a high level of emotion, and in our cases, also trauma. There is usually a rallying around the flag and the almost thoughtless acceptance of mainstream narratives fostered by leaders and the media. Wartime pollsters, and maybe pollsters at all times, are usually looking for headlines and noticeable heights in positions held by the wider public. Support for the war effort, perceiving the troops, especially the fallen fighters, as heroes, limiting or marginalizing criticism of one’s own side – these are all very common trends in wartime polls, and they were very apparent in the Israeli and Palestinian polls over the past two years.  I don’t find the polls during wartime to be particularly important when trying to understand longer-term potentials of political processes.

As all of my readers know, I have not stopped advocating policies that will lead us to genuine Israeli-Palestinian peace. There was a period of a few years prior to October 7 when I questioned if the two-state solution was still viable, and as such, I engaged in several attempts to brainstorm with other Palestinians and Israelis on alternatives to the two-state solution.  Shortly after October 7, I came back to understanding that there was no other solution to our conflict than the two-state solution (there can be variations on this theme of two states) and that it was back on the table and more relevant than ever.

Naturally, I have been challenged by almost everyone on both sides, claiming that Israeli and Palestinian public opinion was further away from two-states, or from any solution, than ever before. Current public opinion polls on both sides reflect that reality very strongly. Nonetheless, I continue to believe that this solution is more relevant than ever, and that we are closer to reaching it than ever before. The pollsters, on both sides, in fact assist in the freezing of the narrative that the Israeli and Palestinian publics are not prepared to even think about peace, and Israelis are certainly not ready to consider the establishment of a Palestinian state next to Israel, nor are Palestinians willing now to accept the legitimacy of the State of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.

That is a correct reflection of the reality that is shaped by public opinion polls and by people who call themselves leaders, but who are in fact followers – not leaders. These so-called leaders follow what is perceived as public opinion, failing to understand that the challenge of leadership is to shape and to make public opinion and not to follow it.

It always amazes me that pollsters ask the questions that they want the answers for without thinking about whether or not a follow-up question would change the results. For instance, when Palestinian pollsters ask the Palestinians if they support the armed struggle, or armed resistance against Israel, especially during wartime the results are around 50%, sometimes even higher. I asked Khalil Shikaki, one of the leading Palestinian........

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