It’s beautiful to watch snow falling. Sometimes you have to travel far to see it. But every so often — not often — snow falls in the Jerusalem hills, and we begin to wonder: will it happen again?

This winter began with multiple heavy rainstorms. February, however, has felt more like spring — and not a particularly wet one. I may have left my Israel Winter Weather colleagues behind, but perhaps watching me walk through a historic snowstorm was encouragement enough for them, Yaakov and Jonathan, to try just a little harder — to make it snow again.

What we do know is that a colder pattern has finally arrived — something the models hinted at nearly two weeks ago. The atmosphere is also turning wetter. Temperatures should cool by Shabbat, and the upper-level air mass is forecast to become even colder in time for Purim. Periodic precipitation looks likely through much of next week.

There’s a saying that it always snows on Purim. In reality, measurable snow has occurred only once on Purim in roughly the last 30 years or so. Still, this year could bring some frozen precipitation to the Jerusalem area — though more likely ice pellets or graupel than true accumulating snow.

The real drama may unfold toward the end of next week. Some models indicate the development of an Omega block over Europe — a high-amplitude ridge flanked by troughs — an often favorable setup for drawing colder air southward into our region. If the thermal profile remains sufficiently cold despite the strengthening late-winter sun, the door to snow would at least be open. Other guidance, however, suggests the block may weaken, allowing spring-like conditions to resume shortly after Purim. They don’t buy into the post Purim Spiel cold spell.

Still, there may also be another piece of the puzzle unfolding far above us. A modest warming in the stratosphere suggests the Polar Vortex is being stretched rather than broken. That kind of “soft split” often produces a persistently wavy jet stream instead of a single dramatic Arctic blast. In such a March pattern, troughs can repeatedly dip into the Eastern Mediterranean, favoring a series of Cyprus Lows — unsettled, occasionally cold, and potentially wetter than average — with just enough instability to keep late-season surprises on the table, especially at the higher elevations.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)