Along its northern border, Israel has encountered the same strategic conundrum for decades. Hezbollah eventually turned all ceasefires into little more than pauses while the terrorist group replenished its weapons, rebuilt its tunnels, amassed precision-guided missiles, and got ready for the next round of fighting. While steadily undermining Israeli deterrence, diplomatic agreements frequently produced the appearance of stability. The recently negotiated framework between Israel and Lebanon, mediated by the United States, seems to be essentially different.

The creation of a security zone is not the agreement’s most significant feature. Instead, it is said that the Israel Defense Forces’ continued freedom of action against both current and potential threats within that zone is guaranteed by the classified annex. Article 4, which Israeli leaders reportedly insisted upon during negotiations, specifically maintains Israel’s operational authority to attack Hezbollah infrastructure before it becomes an immediate threat. If accurately implemented, this changes the strategic equation.

Deterrence Instead of Illusion

International diplomacy in Lebanon was predicated for a long time on the false premise that ceasefires by themselves result in security. Contrary evidence comes from history. Resolution 1701 of the UN Security Council envisioned a southern Lebanon free of Hezbollah forces after the 2006 Lebanon War. In reality, Hezbollah expanded its missile arsenal, built increasingly advanced subterranean infrastructure, progressively reestablished military positions, and integrated itself into civilian populations. After October 7, the lesson became painfully clear. Restraint is interpreted differently by terrorist groups than by democratic governments. Organizations like Hezbollah often see........

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