One of the inescapable paradoxes of a terrorist attack is that we are most desperate for answers, and most moved to diagnose it, in its immediate aftermath when we know the least about it. In this respect, the tragedy of Bondi was no different, spawning a broad spectrum of immediate accounts.

For some, this was nothing less than the shocking return of Islamic State, which we had come to assume was a spent force after the destruction of its purported caliphate in 2019. At the other extreme, this was simply the work of two crazed people in isolation. A middle view, focusing especially on the pair’s recent trip to the southern Philippines, posits some kind of small network between them and the terrorist groups active in Mindanao.

Flower tributes at the footbridge where the Bondi shootings took place.Credit: Oscar Colman

Now, after nearly three weeks of investigation, the Australian Federal Police has given us a fuller picture. As it stands, they believe the two men received no training or “logistical preparation” in the Philippines, and acted alone. No one – including the formal Islamic State organisation – directed them to undertake this slaughter. The commissioner stresses this is very much an “initial assessment”, and is therefore open to revision. Even so, it’s an important first marker: both predictable and hugely concerning. It is entirely in line with how terrorism is changing, and underscores just how difficult authorities’ task has become.

The truth is Islamic State is not “back” or “resurgent” in any meaningful way as an organisation, aside from its modest gains in Syria, sub-Saharan Africa, and in Afghanistan, where it is often........

© The Sydney Morning Herald