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The predawn US military operation that spirited Nicolás Maduro and his wife out of Venezuela and into US custody marks a watershed in hemispheric politics. In an operation that lasted just over two hours, American forces removed a foreign president. It followed months of sabre-rattling and a steady build-up of America’s regional forces.

Whether under the banner of counter-narcotics or regime change, the message is unmistakable: the US is prepared to act unilaterally, forcefully and, potentially, illegally. And this will have broad ramifications across Latin America, not least for Venezuela itself.

The reaction to the US intervention from around the region was instantaneous. Colombia rushed troops to its frontier, bracing for potential refugees and denouncing the strikes as an affront to regional sovereignty. Cuba joined Iran, Russia and other foes of Washington in condemning the raid at the United Nations. A handful of governments, notably in Argentina, offered ringing endorsements.

Maduro’s next public appearance will probably be in a New York court. But where do the US and Venezuela go from here? US President Donald Trump declared that the US would “run” Venezuela until there was “a safe, proper and judicious transition” of power. He also said his administration was “not afraid of boots on the ground”.

But so far, few concrete details are on offer. Much depends on what Washington does next and how Venezuela’s fractured polity responds. As an expert on US-Latin American relations, I think five broad scenarios seem likely.

In the first scenario, Trump will proclaim mission accomplished, parade the capture of Maduro as a triumph of American will and rapidly reduce the US footprint. Venezuelan institutions would be left largely intact. Current Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez would preside over a reconstituted government that retains its commitment to the style of left-wing governance developed by the late Hugo Chavez, now minus its latest figurehead in Maduro.

This would suit American generals keen to limit US troop exposure, as well as foreign powers anxious to avoid a power vacuum. But it offers little to the Venezuelan opposition or to regional........

© The Sydney Morning Herald