Why the NRL’s big five contenders can – and can’t – win the title

August 6, 2026 — 5:00am

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We’ve got five rounds left in the regular season and, in my eyes, five teams who can lift the Provan-Summons trophy.

Penrith are deserved premiership favourites, but I can see a world where the Panthers don’t claim the title as well. Here’s why.

36 points, 15 wins, four losses. Form: 3-1

Why they can win: The Panthers have stability in key positions on the field. They’ve got stability in the coach’s box, and stability in the front office. It makes all the difference when the pressure of finals falls on your shoulders.

Penrith have the best and most successful big-game players in the NRL – Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o, Isaah Yeo, Moses Leota and Liam Martin have all owned the biggest moments in grand finals, Origins and Test matches. And of course, there’s a bloke named Nathan Cleary pulling the strings, on track for his first Dally M medal.

Why they can’t: Injuries. Dylan Edwards and Casey McLean have joined Mitch Kenny on the sidelines. Kenny’s out for a few weeks longer than the two backline stars but their depth is starting to be tested a little. Their next month too is another hurdle – they face a tough Warriors team at home followed by a short turnaround against the Roosters, then a trip to Melbourne into Canterbury. How Ivan Cleary manages his stars and how they pull up in four weeks is their biggest challenge.

34 points, 14 wins, five losses. Form: 4-0

Why they can win: They’ve got X-factor all over the paddock – Sam Walker and Mark Nawaqanitawase are the two most dangerous and unpredictable players in the competition. The Roosters pack is young, well-balanced and can lay a match-winning platform.

Walker’s short-kicking game becomes extra potent as well in slippery night games, which they’ll be playing deep in the finals; no team scores more tries off the boot than the Chooks.

You can see the hunger in Trent Robinson and his side, too. They’re well aware they........

© The Sydney Morning Herald