The Statesman editorial, “Monsoon in Peril” (September 12), rightly sounds the alarm on the future of India’s most vital natural system. For centuries, the south-west monsoon has been the subcontinent’s heartbeat ~ nurturing its fields, filling its rivers, replenishing its groundwater, and dictating the rhythm of rural life. But climate change, rapid urbanisation, and environmental degradation are making this once-predictable cycle increasingly erratic.

The editorial highlights a truth that is no longer confined to academic journals: the monsoon is in peril, and with it the security of millions. To understand why the rains are faltering, it helps to recall how the system works. The Indian monsoon is essentially a vast wind-and-rain engine driven by a contrast: the summer heating of the Asian landmass and the relative coolness of the Indian Ocean. Warm air rises over the land, drawing in moisture-laden winds from the ocean. These winds rise, cool, condense, and fall as rain. For centuries, this system had its ups and downs ~ a strong year, a weak year, a drought here, a flood there.

Advertisement

But overall, its rhythm was steady enough for farmers to trust and for civilizations to thrive. Climate change, however, is unsettling this balance in profound ways. The Indian Ocean has warmed faster than most parts of the world’s seas, changing the very currents that carry rain. This heating alters wind patterns, intensifies cyclones, and delays or disrupts the monsoon’s arrival. Added to this are the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño events – periods of abnormal warming that are becoming more frequent and severe. They disrupt atmospheric circulation and weaken the Indian monsoon.

Advertisement

Meanwhile, shifting jet streams, the high-altitude winds that guide weather systems, are steering monsoon currents away from their usual tracks. Instead of steady rainfall spread over for nearly four months we now experience cloudbursts, flash floods, and long dry spells. The atmosphere’s increased capacity to hold moisture means when it does rain, it often rains too much, too quickly. Glaciers and snowpacks in the Himalayas, which help regulate temperature gradients crucial for monsoon winds, are melting rapidly. This adds uncertainty to an already unstable system.

More........

© The Statesman