Trade policy has often been used as an instrument of strategic pressure, but when it collides with global energy markets, the consequences rarely remain confined to the intended targets. A proposed US move to impose 100 per cent tariffs on the world’s largest buyers of Russian crude reflects an attempt to tighten economic pressure on Moscow. Yet it also exposes the difficult balance between geopolitical objectives and the realities of international energy security.

India finds itself at the centre of this dilemma. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, discounted Russian crude has evolved from being an opportunistic purchase into a cornerstone of India’s energy strategy. For a country that imports more than four-fifths of its crude oil requirements, affordability and supply stability are not commercial preferences; they are national imperatives. Access to cheaper Russian oil has helped moderate import costs, supported refinery operations and reduced the inflationary pressures that higher global crude prices inevitably transmit to consumers.

Any measure that seeks to disrupt these flows must therefore answer a fundamental question: where will equivalent volumes come from? The global oil market is not characterised by........

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