US President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum to America’s allies underscores how trade has become a central weapon in the struggle over Ukraine. By demanding that every Nato member halt purchases of Russian oil and impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on China, he has fused economic coercion with the promise of military de-escalation. His message is stark: follow my plan and the war will end quickly; refuse and the conflict will drag on. At first glance the logic seems simple. Russian oil exports remain the Kremlin’s main source of hard currency. China and India have stepped in as key buyers since Europe began phasing out its own imports, cushioning Moscow from Western sanctions.

Punish these buyers with steep tariffs, Mr Trump argues, and the cash lifeline sustaining Russia’s invasion will snap. Yet the strategy is far more complicated than the rhetoric suggests. Europe has........

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